Hi friend 👋🏼

This week, we’re covering a wide range of news from Hermès’s unexpected market growth to the cautious moves of insiders during a major bull market. Plus, an exciting Van Gogh piece has caught the attention of art lovers, and bond traders are (yet again) adjusting after another misread of the Fed’s signals. 

The Weekly Fun Fact 🤔

Gordina, a previously unknown Van Gogh portrait, has been acquired by the Noordbrabants Museum for more than £7 million. Known as “The Mona Lisa of Brabant”, this rare finding was discovered hidden in a private collection for decades. The artwork, which shows a local woman from Van Gogh’s home region, provides insight into his early years and how he connected with his surroundings. Art historians studying this portrait are discovering not just another Van Gogh work, but another layer to the artist's growth as an artist and his mission of painting real faces of his community.

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🔴 Misreading the Fed’s signals leaves bond traders guessing 📉

This was a turbulent week for bond markets with traders overestimating the chances of a Fed rate cut, causing notable fluctuations in yields. Contrary to what many traders had predicted, the Fed is keeping rates high despite pressures from inflation and economic concerns. This misjudgment highlights how difficult it is to understand the Fed’s position in a time of sustained inflation. With bond prices and yields reflecting the volatility in real time, investors are now facing renewed uncertainty about potential adjustments to interest rates. 

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🟡 Insider caution amid stock market highs 📈

Despite a strong stock market rally in 2024, insider sales are at their highest levels in more than three years, raising concerns. Goldman Sachs has recently predicted a possible ten-year bear market, with yearly S&P 500 returns of just 3%, indicating a difficult period ahead. Although analyst Anthony Pompliano suggests that data leads to a sustained bull market (only the future will tell).

On the other hand, the rise of insider stock sales by executives of publicly traded companies appears to point towards a bear market. High-profile figures, such as Warren Buffett and Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang, have started selling off stocks, fueling questions about whether insiders foresee a market slowdown. This contrast between market optimism and insiders caution paints a complex and uncertain financial picture for the stocks market.

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🟢 Hermès stands strong amid luxury slowdown 👜

It’s been a strong year for Hermès that reported an impressive 11.3% growth in Q3 sales. With a total of $3.99 billion in revenue, Hermès left competitors like LVMH and Kering struggling with a slowed growth. The brand continues to attract demand for its iconic leather goods (that went up 17%) and sees solid sales in its ready-to-wear and beauty lines. Strategic investments in new leather workshops and in the training for 250 artisans highlight Hermès’s adaptability to solidify its position at the forefront of the luxury market, maintaining its elite status amidst market challenges.

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🎬 That’s a wrap on this week’s recap! Whether it’s Hermès pushing through the luxury slowdown, the Fed keeping bond traders guessing, or Van Gogh’s historic new discovery, there’s plenty to reflect on.👋